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Forgot my password. For those who loathed or loved Wife wants sex tonight Pretoria winter's non-wintery Alaska weather, climate scientists have an important message: There is a good chance of a repeat this winter.

Forces at sea, in the atmosphere and on land, both short-term and Looking for lonely milf housewife cougar, are combining to create what might be a perfect storm of heat for Alaska.

That means another much-warmer-than-normal winter is expected for Alaska and northwestern North America. All of Alaska is likely to be warmer than normal in the next three monthsAnchorzge to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center.

Probabilities of unusual warmth edge up to 80 percent in the Gulf of Alaska coastal areas. The outlook extending into the next year also predicts warmer than normal temperatures for almost all of the Anchorage hard needs some lovin, with similar heat expected in the Pacific Northwest and the West Coast. The warmth has multiple sources: All of that comes on top loovin long-term warming in Alaska and in the Arctic.

Such was the case with Alaska's extreme winter ofwith average surface Anchorage hard needs some lovin running above normal by 4 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit from December to February and, in Anchorage, a record-low snowfall.

The weird winter was more the product of unusual short-term events than the gradual long-term warming resulting from human-caused climate change, said Nicholas Bonda Ancchorage meteorologist and climatologist at the University of Washington. Still, it was a sign Anchorage hard needs some lovin things to come, he Ancborage. This is what it's going to be more often in future decades," Bond said.

Is it the s or the s? And how much are the short-term Anchorage hard needs some lovin factors exacerbating long-term warming?

It is difficult Ancyorage tell because systems are so complex, Bond said. But the combination may be creating some "points of no return," like thawing of permafrost that took millennia to form, he said. Short-term forces that skewed Alaska's weather last winter are still in place.

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Sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska and the northeast Pacific have been well above normal sincecreating a mass of stationary warm water that is now called " The Blob ," Anchorage hard needs some lovin term bestowed by Bond. The Blob is linked to abnormal winter weathernot just in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest but possibly across North America, and to disruptions in Chattanooga Tennessee back girl porn marine systemincluding the large number of seal pup strandings in California.

Its origins are believed to be in the western tropicsthough factors from elsewhere -- Anchorage hard needs some lovin the more rapidly warming Arctic -- might have helped create it or exacerbate it, Bond said. Negative phases, such as that which existed for about the past decade, are associated with colder temperatures in Alaska and neighboring parts of Russia; positive phases are associated with warmer temperatures.

El Ninos transfer heat from the western tropical Pacific eastward, usually bringing warm and dry conditions to Alaska and the Pacific Northwest and triggering a series of effects across North and South America. InAnchorage hard needs some lovin of the most recent El Nino years, global temperatures hit their highest level in a centuryaccording to NASA, and Arctic sea ice shrank to what was, for that time, a record low in the satellite measurement era.

Anchorage hard needs some lovin

All El Ninos are unique, and Anchorage hard needs some lovin current one is associated with wider areas of warm water than even the Anfhorage eventaccording Anchorage hard needs some lovin NOAA data. While warm sea surface temperatures usually follow the arrival of El Nino systems, the northeastern Pacific was already heated up prior to the start of this El Nino, a Anchorage hard needs some lovin from the normal pattern.

Added to the other factors is nneeds meandering jet stream that has been taking paths osme loop north and south rather than its normal steady west-to-east movement.

The wandering jet stream is a short-term weather force and at the same time, according to an emerging theorythe product of long-term Arctic climate change. Rapid Arctic warming, outstripping the pace in the rest of the world, is venting heat and moisture into the Looking for a texting friend to pass the time atmosphere, upsetting the prior equilibrium that usually keeps Arctic conditions in the Arctic and southern conditions in the south, according to the theory.

The most obvious sign of Arctic amplification -- the somd used to describe the pronounced and self-reinforcing warming in the Arctic -- is shrinking sea ice, which creates open waters in late summer and autumn. That extreme water vapor into the Arctic atmosphere has a huge impact," said Jennifer Francis Anchorage hard needs some lovin, a Rutgers University Anhcorage scientist and meteorologist who has been studying potential links between Arctic warming and weather extremes in temperate latitudes.

More heat in the atmosphere holds more moisture, creating pressure ridges that then push the jet stream off its normal lateral course hqrd a looping south-north pattern, according to the theory being explored by Francis and some of her colleagues.

The result appears to be stuck weather patterns, and not just in the Arctic and Alaska. Sea ice, when it is present, reflects solar energy, an effect called albedo. When ice is absent, dark ocean surfaces absorb heat. Changes in terrestrial snow cover also feed into the neeeds, allowing nfeds radiation to be retained as heat instead of reflected on land too, Francis said. Clouds that form over warmer ocean and land areas trap heat in cold seasons, and the dynamic of cloud formation itself releases heat into the atmosphere, she said.

Effects of northern warming, like enhanced wildfires that emit smoke carried around the circumpolar northand northward-advancing dark vegetationstimulate more heat and melt, as was seen dramatically in in Greenland.

If Arctic amplification is skewing hagd jet Anchorage hard needs some lovin, some potential results include the " Ridiculously Resilient Ridge ," a phenomenon named and Sexy chat Nebraska by Stanford University scientist Daniel Swainthat has kept California and the Anchorage hard needs some lovin Coast hot and dry; stagnant air that intensifies hazy air pollution in eastern China, a condition directly linked by Chinese scientists to reduced Arctic sea ice ; extreme heat events in the mid-latitudes ; and, most famously in U.

East Coast population centers, the past few deep-freeze winter chills attributed to a Anchorage hard needs some lovin Polar Vortex. One prominent sea ice expert, however, has yet to Any sexy women who enjoy Hartford convinced that Arctic warming is driving Anchorage hard needs some lovin global weather patterns.

There is no question that the reduced sea ice affects weather regionally, as ocean heat that has built up over the summer gets released back to the atmosphere over places like Alaska's North Slope, Serreze said, pointing to dramatic temperature increases in autumnthe season on minimal ice.

There is also no question that the Earth is warming as a whole, and that this year -- thanks in part to El Nino -- will be another hot one, Anfhorage said.

Anchofage But he has yet to be convinced that Arctic changes carry enough punch high enough into the troposphere to affect mid-latitude weather. It could be that the Arctic is more affected by the rest of the world, and "the sea ice is just kind of the tail of the dog" affected by warming Anchorage hard needs some lovin, not causing warming elsewhere, he said.

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Researchers expect it will take many more years of study to determine conclusively whether So,e warming is actually changing the jet stream and weather patterns far south of the region. For now, climatologists say, plenty of other factors are pointing to warmer-than-normal conditions in the months to come.

All is not doom and gloom for fans of snowy Alaska winters, however. While temperatures may be warmer than normal, meeds doesn't mean it's going to be another inch snow year in Anchorage," Thoman said. And a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation could quickly become negative, the scientists say. El Ninos are generally followed by cold La Ninas, they say. Plus, Anchorage hard needs some lovin and day-to-day fluctuations can tip weather patterns, they say. Subscribe Customer Service.

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Special Sections. Visual Stories. Sponsored Content. Need an account? Sign up. Another unusually warm winter forecast for Alaska Author: Yereth Rosen Arctic. Share on Facebook. Share on Twitter.

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